煤炭行业周报：动力煤企稳，煤炭板块长期不悲观

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - Multiple favorable factors are expected to support a rebound in thermal coal prices after a period of stabilization. Although thermal coal prices have recently declined, the rate of decrease has significantly narrowed. With the arrival of colder weather, electricity consumption is anticipated to rise, boosting short-term demand for thermal coal. Additionally, the onset of the dry season in the Yangtze River basin is expected to reduce the pressure from hydropower on thermal power, further increasing demand for thermal coal [1][2][4][6][28]. - Short-term confidence is lacking, leading to a decline in coking coal prices, but long-term policy improvements are not a major concern. The coking coal market has shown weak performance during the peak season, resulting in decreased market confidence. However, improvements in policies related to the real estate sector and gradual implementation of fiscal policies are expected to boost demand for coking coal [2][13][28]. - The secondary market remains relatively stable, and investors should await opportunities for market rotation. Despite the short-term underperformance of the coal sector, its high dividend characteristics remain advantageous, and investors need not be overly pessimistic as the fundamentals gradually improve [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry has underperformed compared to the broader market, ranking at the lower end among 31 sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.17%, while the coal sector saw a slight increase of 0.32% [4][28]. Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have shown signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline. The average price for Q5500 thermal coal in various regions is as follows: Inner Mongolia Ordos at 659 CNY/ton, Shanxi Datong at 714 CNY/ton, and Shaanxi Yulin at 760 CNY/ton [6][8][28]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have declined again, with the average price for various types reported as follows: Shanxi Gujiao at 850 CNY/ton, Anhui Huaibei at 1580 CNY/ton, and Hebei Tangshan at 1840 CNY/ton. The CCI coking coal index has also decreased [14][28]. Supply and Demand Structure - The supply of thermal coal remains ample, with port inventories increasing. The average daily inventory at ports is 25.06 million tons, with a weekly increase of 737,100 tons. Meanwhile, the average daily consumption by power plants has increased to 34.98 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [8][9][28]. Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity has decreased, with an average of 66 vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports, down by 7 vessels from the previous week. Shipping rates have shown an upward trend [21][24][28]. Industry News - Russia plans to restore coal exports to China to at least 100 million tons starting next year. In the first three quarters, electricity consumption in five southern provinces increased by 8.1% year-on-year [24][28].