半导体行业研究框架专题报告：产业周期峰回路转，内生成长步步高升

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is characterized by cyclicality and growth, with the current cycle bottoming out in 2023-2024 [1] - Global semiconductor sales from Jan-Aug 2024 increased by 17.74% YoY, driven by a significant rise in memory module prices compared to 2023 [1] - Silicon wafer shipment area in H1 2024 decreased by 11.02% YoY, reflecting weak global demand [1] - Inventory levels for CPU, memory, analog, and MCU products remain historically high, with domestic companies maintaining elevated inventory for 8 consecutive quarters [1] Market Trends - Memory module prices have shown a slight downward trend, with memory chip prices fluctuating at the bottom [1] - Short-term supply is tight, while long-term supply remains ample, with a weak recovery expected in H2 2024 [1] - The semiconductor industry is driven by traditional sectors like smartphones, PCs, tablets, and servers, which account for 70% of demand [1] - Emerging technologies such as AI, smart wearables, and XR are driving structural growth in the industry [1] Investment Opportunities AI Innovation - AI servers are experiencing rapid growth, benefiting from data center construction and the shift from cloud to consumer AI products [2] - Key companies to watch include Haiguang Information, Loongson Technology, Cambricon, and Luxshare Precision [2] Consumer Electronics Recovery - The semiconductor cycle typically lasts 3-6 years, with the current cycle bottoming out in 2019 and a weak recovery expected in H1 2024 [2] - Companies like GigaDevice, Maxscend, and Will Semiconductor are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery [2] Domestic Supply Chain - The urgency for domestic supply chain development has increased due to overseas restrictions on advanced logic and memory industries [2] - Companies such as AMEC, Naura, and Huahai Qingke are making breakthroughs in equipment and materials, with potential for significant growth [2] Automotive and Industrial - The electrification of new energy vehicles is driving high growth in power devices and MCUs [3] - Companies like MacroMicro, StarPower, and Yangjie Technology are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for automotive and industrial chips [3] Global Semiconductor Market - Global semiconductor sales in 2023 were dominated by integrated circuits, accounting for 81% of total sales [45] - Memory circuits, particularly DRAM and NAND, are highly sensitive to demand fluctuations and exhibit significant price volatility [46][47] - Silicon wafer shipments in H1 2024 decreased by 11.02% YoY, indicating a slowdown in global demand [49] Regional Insights - China's semiconductor industry faces challenges in advanced technologies like 7nm chips and 18nm DRAM, but progress is being made in mid-to-low-end markets [1] - The domestic semiconductor market is expected to benefit from long-term localization efforts, with a focus on upstream equipment, materials, and high-end chips for industrial and automotive applications [1] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in H2 2024, with potential improvement in 2025 as global and domestic economies recover [1] - Key drivers for future growth include AI, new energy vehicles, and smart wearables, which are expected to drive both volume and structural growth in the industry [1]