DHE(002221) 光大证券·2024-10-29 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Donghua Energy (002221.SZ) with a current price of 9.22 CNY [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is under pressure due to the downturn in PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) market conditions, but it is positioned to benefit from future industry recovery [3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 23.7 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, with a net profit of 1.31 billion CNY, up 12.7% year-on-year [3] - Q3 alone saw a revenue of 9.36 billion CNY, a significant increase of 52.5% year-on-year, although net profit dropped by 30.7% year-on-year [3] - The company is actively expanding its hydrogen energy business, which is expected to alleviate pressure from narrowing PDH-PP price spreads [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.36 billion CNY, a 52.5% increase year-on-year and a 28.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 23.7 billion CNY, reflecting a 16.6% year-on-year growth [3] Production Capacity and Projects - As of H1 2024, the company has three major production bases in Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, and Maoming, with a total capacity of 2.4 million tons of PDH and 200,000 tons of polypropylene [4] - The Maoming project is progressing steadily, which is expected to strengthen the company's leading position in the PDH market [4] Hydrogen Energy Strategy - The company is focusing on the hydrogen energy sector, enhancing its capabilities through internal hydrogen gas transportation and establishing hydrogen refueling stations [5] - In H1 2024, the company sold approximately 16,300 tons of hydrogen, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, which helps mitigate the impact of reduced PDH-PP price spreads on profitability [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the downturn in PDH market conditions, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.59 billion CNY (down 45%), 2.95 billion CNY (down 45%), and 7.56 billion CNY (down 25%) respectively [5] - The report anticipates that as the PDH and polypropylene industries recover, the company's performance will significantly improve [5]