中国石化：炼化板块短期拖累业绩，供给侧优化或强化龙头竞争内核

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's performance has been impacted by a decline in refining sector profits due to falling oil prices and narrowing margins on petrochemical products. The company reported a revenue of 2366.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.25 billion yuan, down 16.46% year-on-year [3][4] - The upstream segment has shown resilience with increased production and efficiency, while the downstream refining and marketing segments have faced challenges due to weak demand and cost pressures [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Sinopec achieved a revenue of 790.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.80%, and a net profit of 8.54 billion yuan, down 52.15% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share for Q3 was 0.07 yuan, a decline of 52.89% year-on-year [3][4] - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2024 was 81.6 USD/barrel, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the average price in Q3 was 78.7 USD/barrel, leading to a significant reduction in inventory gains [3][4] Upstream Performance - The upstream segment reported a production equivalent of 386 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with crude oil production at 211 million barrels, up 0.3%, and natural gas production at 175 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 5.6% [2][3] - The company has made significant progress in high-quality exploration and effective development, particularly in shale gas and oil fields [2] Downstream Performance - The refining segment processed 191 million tons of crude oil in the first three quarters, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, with refined product output down 0.8% [2][3] - The refining cash operating cost was 3.69 USD/barrel, down 8% year-on-year, but the refining margin fell nearly 20% due to weak demand and rapid oil price declines [2][3] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the refining industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with smaller refineries likely to be phased out, which may strengthen the competitive advantage of industry leaders like Sinopec [2][3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from cost optimization and structural adjustments in the supply chain, enhancing its competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [2][3]