兴齐眼药：24Q3费用显著收窄，阿托品完成完整随访实验

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant cost reductions and the completion of the full follow-up study for atropine eye drops, which have shown significant efficacy in delaying myopia progression in children aged 6 to 12 years [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 1.439 billion yuan for the past 12 months, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 291 million yuan, up 59.47% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates revenue for 2024 to be 1.918 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.7%, and net profit expected to reach 378 million yuan, reflecting a 57.7% increase [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.54%, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, up 28.41% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 78.38%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, with a net operating cash flow of 356 million yuan, up 57.42% year-on-year [2][4] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 5.00 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend rate of 51.5% [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.918 billion yuan, 2.820 billion yuan, and 3.650 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 47.0%, and 29.4% [3][4] - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 378 million yuan, 594 million yuan, and 790 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.7%, 57.0%, and 33.1% [3][4] Key Financial Ratios - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 78.3% in 2024 to 79.9% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 23.2% in 2024 to 26.2% in 2026 [3][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 94.47 in 2024 to 21.52 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3][6]