宏观研究：工业企业利润是后发变量，关注价格的先期信号

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size has shown a negative year-on-year growth rate for two consecutive months, with a September decline of -27.1%, a drop of 9.3 percentage points from August[8] - From January to September, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate for these enterprises turned negative at -3.5%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous value[8] - The mining and manufacturing sectors reported negative profit growth rates of -10.7% and -3.8%, respectively, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector maintained a positive growth rate of 12.1%[8] Group 2: Economic Cycle and Demand - Insufficient effective demand is identified as the main issue during the transition period of new and old growth drivers, leading to a divergence between production and demand[11] - Without effective demand expansion policies, excess supply will lead to rising inventories, weakening prices, and potential deflationary signs[11] - The inventory of finished products in industrial enterprises increased by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a high level of inventory and potential price reductions to clear stock[12] Group 3: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - Recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth are expected to gradually show effects, potentially reversing the downward spiral of production and demand[19] - The manufacturing sector's profit share has increased, with the equipment manufacturing sector's profit share rising to 34.08%, while the upstream mining and raw materials sectors saw slight declines[13] - Short-term improvements in industrial demand are anticipated, supported by infrastructure investment and a potential recovery in prices and profit margins[19]