2024年9月进出口数据点评：短期因素扰动叠加外需放缓，9月出口增速大幅回落

Group 1: Export Data Analysis - In September 2024, China's export amount reached $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, a significant drop of 6.3 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The month-on-month decline was 1.6%, marking the first negative growth in month-on-month comparison since 2018[1] - The export growth rate was adversely affected by short-term factors and a slowdown in external demand, with the China Export High-Frequency Index falling from -0.27 in August to -0.43 in September[1] Group 2: Import Data Analysis - In September 2024, the import amount in dollar terms grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - For the first three quarters, the total import amount was $1.93 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[5] - The import growth was constrained by weak domestic demand, with significant declines in the import of crude oil and iron ore due to falling prices[5] Group 3: Trade Partner Insights - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with a cumulative year-on-year export growth of 10.2% in the first three quarters, contributing 1.65 percentage points to overall export growth[3] - In September, exports to ASEAN grew by 5.48%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to weakening demand in related countries[3] - Exports to the U.S. and EU saw declines of 2.8 and 12.1 percentage points respectively in September, attributed to weakening manufacturing sectors and weather disruptions[3] Group 4: Product Category Performance - In September, the export of mechanical and electrical products grew by 2.98%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to the overall export growth, despite a significant slowdown[4] - Automotive exports maintained a strong growth rate of 25.7%, influenced by the EU's tariffs on electric vehicles[4] - Labor-intensive products like furniture and clothing saw declines of -12.3% and -7.1% respectively, likely due to order shifts ahead of the Christmas season[4]