欧派家居：收入压力延续，盈利能力优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.296 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.041 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to weak real estate and consumer demand, while internal management efforts and product structure optimization have led to improved profitability [1] - Revenue from cabinets, wardrobes, and supporting products, sanitary ware, and wooden doors in Q3 2024 was 1.47 billion, 2.77 billion, 300 million, and 330 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 29.7%, 19.6%, 15.9%, and 21.9%. The cabinet segment saw an increased decline compared to Q2 2024, while the wardrobe and wooden door declines have narrowed [1] - The retail channel experienced a revenue of 4.19 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 20.6% year-on-year, with direct sales and distribution revenues decreasing by 12.9% and 20.9% respectively. The retail gross margin improved to 41.6%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company has completed the layout of five major manufacturing bases, which operate independently and cover a 500-kilometer radius for product delivery. The overall logistics cost has significantly improved, and the net operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.451 billion yuan, an increase of 230 million yuan year-on-year [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.71 billion, 2.84 billion, and 3.00 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16.0X, 15.2X, and 14.5X [1][2] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 19.475 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [2][10] - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is estimated at 4.44 yuan, with a projected net asset return rate of 14.1% [2][10]