CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-10-29 09:30Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported third-quarter results that met expectations, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency to steadily release profits [1] - The company's coal production and sales volume showed a year-on-year recovery, and effective cost control mitigated the impact of falling coal prices on performance [1] - The company has a high proportion of long-term contracts, indicating stable operations and long-term growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, with third-quarter revenue of 47.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.43% year-on-year, with third-quarter net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [1] - The cumulative coal production for the first three quarters was 102 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, while the cumulative coal sales volume was 206 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year [1] Cost and Pricing Analysis - The self-produced coal sales price was 571 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan per ton or 5.3% year-on-year [1] - The unit sales cost was 286.60 yuan per ton, down 8.19 yuan per ton or 2.8% year-on-year [1] - The company effectively reduced total costs through improved management of labor and transportation expenses [1] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 19.39 billion yuan, 20.39 billion yuan, and 20.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.7, and 8.6 [2][4] - The company’s valuation is below the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for price appreciation [1][3] Comparable Company Valuation - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 8.2 for 2024E, while the company’s P/E ratio is 9.2, suggesting it is undervalued compared to peers [3] - The company’s current stock price is 13.41 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 8.31-15.92 yuan [1][3]