有色金属行业周报：金价续创新高，期待财政政策落地效果

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - Gold prices have reached new highs, exceeding $2,772 per ounce, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections. The market is awaiting the effects of forthcoming fiscal policies [1]. - The Chinese government plans to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy to address local government debt, stabilize the real estate market, and boost income for key groups, aiming for around 5% economic growth for the year [1][16]. - The report suggests that industrial metal leaders, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to benefit directly from these policies as downstream demand gradually recovers [1][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - From October 21 to October 25, the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rose by 2.37%. Among sub-industries, energy metals saw an increase of 8.9%, while precious metals decreased by 2.26% [6]. - The top five gainers in individual stocks included Shenzhen Xinxing (38%), Jinan High-tech (33%), and Zhongrun Resources (28%) [7]. 1.2 Major Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - LME copper price was $9,564 per ton, down 0.61% week-on-week but up 19.78% year-on-year. LME aluminum price was $2,670 per ton, up 2.16% week-on-week and 20.71% year-on-year [8]. - As of October 27, 2024, LME copper inventory was 280,000 tons, down 2.61% week-on-week [10]. 2. Precious Metals - The report highlights that the upcoming U.S. elections and ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving gold prices higher, with COMEX gold at $2,761 per ounce, reflecting a 0.89% increase week-on-week and a 38.65% increase year-on-year [9][12]. 3. Industrial Metals - The Chinese government is expected to implement strong fiscal policies that will likely benefit industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, as local governments gain more investment capacity [16]. - As of September 2024, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,004,400 tons, with apparent consumption at 1,312,100 tons [17]. 3.1 Copper - The report notes that as of October 24, 2024, China's electrolytic copper spot inventory was 217,000 tons, while futures inventory was 57,500 tons [17]. 3.2 Aluminum - As of September 2024, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate was 96.03%, with SHFE aluminum futures price at 20,735 yuan per ton as of October 25, 2024 [23].