汇丰控股：营收利润超预期，源于非息增长和计提减少

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for HSBC Holdings PLC (5 HK) with a target price of HKD 61.51 [55] Core Viewpoints - HSBC Holdings PLC's Q3 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong non-interest income growth and reduced provisions [1][2] - Revenue increased by 5.2% YoY, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of -0.1%, while net profit attributable to common shareholders rose by 9.2% YoY, outperforming the consensus estimate of -2.4% [2][7] - Non-interest income surged by 35.4% YoY, significantly higher than the expected 9.5%, while net interest income declined by 17.4% YoY, below the consensus estimate of -12.0% [2] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 47.9%, down 1.4 percentage points YoY, better than the consensus estimate of 51.1% [2] Business Performance - Wealth and Personal Banking revenue grew by 10.3% YoY, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.8% [3][6] - Commercial Banking revenue declined by 0.7% YoY, but still outperformed the consensus estimate of -2.0% [3][6] - Global Banking and Markets revenue increased by 13.5% YoY, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.7% [3][6] - Total customer loans grew by 3.5% YoY, higher than the consensus estimate of 0.8%, while total deposits increased by 6.2% YoY, above the consensus estimate of 2.5% [3] Financial Metrics - The net interest margin (NIM) declined by 16 basis points QoQ to 1.46%, below the consensus estimate of 1.57% [3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by 4 basis points QoQ to 2.47%, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 2.45% [3] - The CET1 ratio improved to 15.2%, up 0.3 percentage points YoY, exceeding the HSBC analyst estimate of 14.9% [4] - Return on equity (ROE) increased by 0.9 percentage points YoY to 14.4%, above the consensus estimate of 13.5% [4] Key Drivers - The reduction in credit loss provisions to USD 986 million, down 7.9% YoY, contributed to the better-than-expected profit, driven by lower provisions in the Commercial Banking and Global Banking & Markets segments, particularly in mainland China's commercial real estate sector [3] - The strong performance in non-interest income, particularly in wealth management and capital markets, offset the decline in net interest income [2][3]