研究报告 Research Report 8 Feb 2026 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W06 周度趋势解析：海外消费业绩密集发布带动股价波动，A/H 股 期待 26 年可选消费恢复 Week 06 Discretionary Trends: Overseas Consumer Earnings Wave Drives Stock Volatility; A/H Shares Anticipate Recovery in Discretionary Consumption in 2026 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 李宁 | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 兆驰股份 | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 永辉超市 | Out ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Feb 2026 e.l.f. Beauty e.l.f. Beauty (ELF US) FY26Q3 业绩增长依赖收购支撑，核心业务增速放缓，指引上调主要来自 Rhode 贡献 FY26Q3 Performance Relies on Acquisition Support; Core Business Growth Slows; Guidance Upgrade Primarily Driven by Rhode Contribution 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 吴颖婕 Mindy Wu yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis (Please see [Table_summary] APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：e.l.f. Beauty 发布 2026 财年第三季度（2025 年 10 月 - 12 月）业绩报告并举行业绩说明会。 e.l.f. Beauty 于 FY2 ...

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are in an upward trend with a phase of consolidation, indicating a healthier market environment [1][35] - The first trading week of February showed signs of stabilization in A-shares with reduced turnover, while the Hang Seng TECH Index experienced a decline of approximately 6.5% [1][35] Market Outlook - The report is optimistic about a potential recovery in the Chinese equity market leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by proactive policy support and a stabilizing "policy put" below 4,100 points for the Shanghai Composite [2][36] - The overall short-selling turnover in Hong Kong is around 19%, with the Hang Seng TECH Index seeing a quick rebound in short-selling turnover to 21%, suggesting a potential for a near-term rebound [2][36] - Strategic investors, particularly insurers, are increasing their exposure to Chinese equities due to the low risk-free yield in China, making equities more attractive compared to bonds and real estate [2][36] Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to remain invested through the holiday, taking advantage of the Spring Festival "red-envelope" rally and using recent market pullbacks as an opportunity to increase exposure [2][37] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on structural investment opportunities within the Chinese equity market [2][37] Sector Focus - The report suggests a focus on technology sectors, particularly commercial aerospace, AI hardware, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" and "going abroad" trends, which are expected to show performance recovery [3][4] - Consumer sectors such as automotive, tourism, and textiles are highlighted as key areas for investment during the Spring Festival [4] - The report also points to the potential for recovery in cyclical industries, including chemicals, engineering machinery, and real estate, as seasonal policies are expected to boost demand [4]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 6 Feb 2026 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology FY4Q25 全球科技业绩快报：Coherent FY4Q25 Global Technology Earnings Snapshot: Coherent 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis 风险 1）产能扩张不及预期风险 2）技术迭代与市场竞争风险 3）客户依赖与需求波动风险 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_su ...

研究报告 Research Report 5 Feb 2026 VISA VISA (V US) 1QFY26 经调整 EPS 超预期并维持全年指引，增值服务与稳定币业务加速 1Q FY26 Adjusted EPS Beat Expectations, Full-Year Guidance Maintained as Value-Added Services and Stablecoin Initiatives Accelerate [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 US$328.93 目标价 US$400.60 市值 US$626.99bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$2,386mn 发行股票数目 1,681mn 自由流通股 (%) 100% 1 年股价最高最低值 US$373.31-US$308.27 注：现价 US$328.93 为 2026 年 02 月 03 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth ...

研究报告 Research Report 2 Feb 2026 舜宇光学 Sunny Optical (2382 HK) 25E 盈利超预期，需求波动不改光学升级主线 25E NI beat; optical upgrade thesis intact despite demand volatility [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus 我们预计 25-27 年公司 EPS 分别为 4.23/3.86/4.19 元（原为 3.44/4.36/5.03 元），给予公司 26 年 19.6x PE 估值，对应目标价 85.24 港元，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险 终端需求不及预期，供应链压力影响利润率，市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$60.00 目标价 HK$85.24 HTI ESG 4.0-4.2-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$65.69bn / ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Feb 2026 康哲药业 China Medical System Holdings (867 HK) 重磅品种芦可替尼获批上市，未来增长可期 Blockbuster Drug Ruxolitinib Cream Approved for Market, Promising Sales Ramp-up Growth Ahead 孟科含 Kehan Meng 聂照亿 Zhaoyi Nie kh.meng@htisec.com john.zy.nie@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 1 月 30 日，康哲药业子公司德镁医药，获得中国国家药品监督管理局（NMPA）批准磷酸芦可替尼乳膏新药上市许 可申请，用于治疗 12 岁及以上儿童和成人患者伴面部受累的非节段型白癜风。芦可替尼乳膏（Opzelura®）是 Incyte 开发的选择性 JAK1/JAK2 抑制剂 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Feb 2026 中国中国香港新能源 China (A-share) China (Overseas) Hong Kong New Energy 新能源行业:容量电价重磅政策落地，储能发令枪响起 New Energy Industry: Landmark Capacity Tariff Policy Implemented, Energy Storage Enters Full-Scale Development 徐柏乔 Baiqiao Xu bq.xu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 本周推荐逻辑 储能行业 2026 年将出现确定性高增长，是我们当下最看好的板块。近期储能行业表现低迷，一方面是由于 Q1 需 求淡季，另一方面原材料始终在涨价，但经过调整后储能相关公司估值性价比已经很高。容量电价政策周末出 台，以及碳酸锂价格连续调整，是我们认为当前储能板块已经 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The discretionary consumption sector has experienced a significant pullback due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in global asset prices [4][13]. - The report highlights that the domestic sportswear sector has shown resilience, with a weekly increase of 0.6%, while other sectors such as luxury goods and cosmetics have faced declines [5][15]. - The report notes that various sub-sectors within discretionary consumption have performed differently, with gold and jewelry being the top performers in the recent weeks [4][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Performance Review - The report details the weekly performance of various sectors, indicating that domestic sportswear outperformed others with a 0.6% increase, while luxury goods saw a decline of 5.8% [4][13]. - Monthly performance shows gold and jewelry leading with a 14.8% increase, while luxury goods and overseas sportswear faced significant declines [4][13]. Sector Analysis - The domestic sportswear sector's growth is attributed to increased demand for warm clothing due to colder weather and strategic partnerships, such as Anta Sports' acquisition of a stake in PUMA [6][15]. - The credit card sector experienced mixed results, with Mastercard performing well while Visa and American Express faced declines due to varying financial performance [15]. - The retail sector saw a decline of 1.4%, with some companies like China Resources Vanguard performing well due to favorable policies [15]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [11][18]. - For instance, the expected PE for the domestic sportswear sector is 13.4 times, which is 70% of its past five-year average [11][18].

研究报告 Research Report 2 Feb 2026 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 周报（26/1/26-26/1/30）：受资金面影响，板块整体回调，医药流通相对稳健 Weekly Report: Capital pressures drove a broad-based sector correction, with pharmaceutical distribution proving relatively stable [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 百济神州 | Outperform 映恩生物 | | Outperform | | 京东健康 | Outperform 华润医药 | | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 金斯瑞生物科技 | | Outperform | | 信达生物 | Outperform 国药控股 | | Neutral | ...