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普拉达:首次覆盖:品牌活力焕新,业绩成长可期
海通国际· 2025-02-08 10:24
[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 普拉达(1913)公司研究报告 2025 年 2 月 3 日 首次覆盖:品牌活力焕新,业绩成长可期 [Table_Summary 投资要点: 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万欧元) | 4201 | 4726 | 5444 | 6017 | 6641 | | (+/-)YoY(%) | 24.8% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | | 净利润(百万欧元) | 465 | 671 | 824 | 940 | 1064 | | (+/-)YoY(%) | 58.1% | 44.2% | 22.8% | 14.1% | 13.2% | | 全面摊薄 EPS(欧元) | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.42 | | 毛利率(%) | 78.85% | 80.44% | 8 ...
中国消费品1月需求报告:必选消费短期依然承压
海通国际· 2025-02-07 00:23
研究报告 ResearchReport 6 Feb 2025 中国食品饮料 China (A-share) Food & Beverage 中国消费品 1 月需求报告:必选消费短期依然承压 Staple Consumption Remains under Pressure in the Short Term [Table_yemei1] Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 水井坊 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 口子窖 | | Outperform | | ...
基于数据库洞察:美国天然气行业稳步发展,LNG产能与管道网络拓展提速
海通国际· 2025-02-06 03:10
[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 6 Feb 2025 全球 AI 工业+能源 Global Industrials & Energy 基于数据库洞察:美国天然气行业稳步发展,LNG 产能与管道网络拓展提速 Insights from Database Analysis: Steady Growth of the U.S. Natural Gas Industry with Accelerated Expansion of LNG Capacity and Pipeline Networks 杨斌 Bin Yang [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis bin.yang@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点: 2024 年第四季度美国 LNG 产能保持稳定,重点项目稳步推进。与 2024 年第三季度相比,项目数量和整体产能未发 生显著变化,市场开发节奏相对平稳。部分关键项目的进展和时间节点出现调整:Plaquemines LNG ...
中国电子:Meta超预期、微软云放缓——Capex不会因Deepseek降低;但重推理轻训练Meta Beat,Azure Miss——Deepseek should Spur Capex instead
海通国际· 2025-02-05 02:38
[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 30 Jan 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology Meta 超预期、微软云放缓 —— Capex 不会因 Deepseek 降低;但重推理轻训练 Meta Beat, Azure Miss —— Deepseek should Spur Capex instead 陈昊飞 Haofei Chen, PhD 吴叡霖 Louis Ng 姚书桥 Barney Yao 纪雨岑 Grace Chi 赵方舟 Eugene Zhao haofei.chen@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com barney.sq.yao@htisec.com grace.yt.chi@htisec.com eugene.fz.zhao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 2025 年 1 月 29 日,Meta 与微软发布最新财 ...
中化化肥:2024年股东应占溢利为10.1-11.1亿元,公司稳步推进“生物+”战略
海通国际· 2025-02-03 08:00
孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 3 Feb 2025 中化化肥 Sinofert Holdings (297 HK) 2024 年股东应占溢利为 10.1-11.1 亿元,公司稳步推进"生物+"战略 NPAtS is expected to be RMB1.01-1.11 billion in 2024, the company promotes "Bio+" strategy steadily xh.sun@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声明,请参阅附录。( ...
日本策略:海上观日:日本加息点评
海通国际· 2025-01-27 01:17
Investment Focus - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the policy rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on January 24, marking the third rate hike since the end of negative interest rates in March last year, bringing the rate back to a 30-year high [3][18] - The new rate will take effect from January 27, 2025, and is the highest level since September 1995 [3][18] - The BOJ significantly increased its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2025, raising the core CPI prediction by 0.5% to 2.4% [3][4] Economic Growth and Inflation Forecast - The actual GDP growth and core CPI forecasts for Japan are as follows: - FY 2024: GDP growth at 0.5%, core CPI at 2.7% - FY 2025: GDP growth at 1.1%, core CPI at 2.4% - FY 2026: GDP growth at 1.0%, core CPI at 2.0% [4] Market Reactions - The rate hike was in line with market expectations, with over 90% of the market anticipating the increase prior to the announcement [6] - Following the announcement, the Japanese stock market experienced slight fluctuations, but the overall sentiment remained stable [6][10] Future Rate Hikes - There is a high probability of another rate hike of 0.25% in the summer of 2025, as the BOJ believes that Japan still faces upward pressure on import prices [8][10] - The BOJ's current policy rate is still below the neutral rate, indicating potential for further increases if economic conditions align with expectations [8] Consumer Spending and Wage Growth - Real wages in Japan showed a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in November, marking the first positive growth in four months, which supports consumer spending recovery [9] - The BOJ noted that wage increases are becoming a common consensus in Japanese society, which is expected to bolster consumer spending [9] Stock Market Impact - The BOJ's rate hike is seen as a positive signal for the Japanese stock market, particularly for domestic demand-related sectors, as it enhances confidence in Japan's economic recovery from deflation [10] - The report anticipates increased capital investment by Japanese companies, which could improve future profitability [10]
日本消费行业12月跟踪报告:通胀再次加速,假期拉动需求
海通国际· 2025-01-26 08:18
Macro Environment - Real wages rose by 0.5% year-on-year in November, with total cash payrolls increasing by 3.9% year-on-year [2][7] - The Consumer Confidence Index for December was 36.2, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous month [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008 [2][9] - December CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously, with core CPI rising by 2.5% for the full year of 2024 [2][9] Industry Overview - The year-end holidays significantly boosted consumer demand, with increased travel and spending from both domestic and foreign tourists [3][16] - In the staples sector, Pan Pacific International Holdings led with strong unit price growth, while the soft drink sector experienced an overall decline in sales due to price increases [3][84] - In discretionary spending, dining and apparel expenditures continued to rise, with Sukiya and Uniqlo showing the highest same-store sales growth in December [3][84] Staples Companies - In December, same-store sales for PPIH, AEON, and 711 Japan were up by 5.8%, 2.6%, and 1.3% year-on-year respectively [4][85] - Drugstore sales for Matsukiyo Cocokara and Welcia both increased by 6.1% year-on-year [4][85] - The soft drink sector saw a decline in sales volumes, with major brands like Suntory, Kirin, and Asahi reporting a 4% drop [4][85] Discretionary Companies - December same-store sales for restaurants such as Sukiya and Saizeriya increased by 16.7% and 16.4% year-on-year respectively [5][86] - Apparel sales also saw significant growth, with Uniqlo reporting a 15.3% increase in same-store sales [5][86] - Duty-free sales in December rose by 31.3% year-on-year, with the number of customers increasing by 36.6% [5][86] Equity Market - Most consumer sub-sectors saw gains in December, with textiles and apparel leading at 3.5% and 2.8% respectively [6][87] - In the staples sector, home goods and personal care products rose by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively, while beer sales fell by 0.9% [6][87] - Retail and food & beverage ETFs experienced net inflows of $29.67 million and $10.34 million respectively [6][87] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with optimistic profit improvement prospects, including ASICS, benefiting from improved pricing and product mix [88] - Pan Pacific International Holdings continues to show strong same-store sales growth [88] - Fast Retailing Group is experiencing rapid growth in international business alongside strong local sales [88]
金发科技:2024年归母净利润同比增长152.58%-199.94%
海通国际· 2025-01-26 00:40
Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating, indicating a strong expected growth in net profit for the company in 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is projected to increase by 152.58% to 199.94% year-on-year, with an expected range of RMB 800 million to RMB 950 million [2][4]. - The company aims to enhance its technological innovation and integrated industrial chain advantages, providing competitive new material solutions to global customers [2][4]. - The modified plastics and special engineering plastics sectors have shown stable growth in sales and gross profit across various industries, including automotive and consumer electronics [2][4]. - The green petrochemical sector is improving its operational quality through better integration with the modified plastics sector, leading to enhanced production efficiency [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2024 is between RMB 800 million and RMB 950 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 152.58% to 199.94%. The net profit after non-recurring items is projected to be between RMB 771 million and RMB 921 million, reflecting a growth of 288.43% to 364.00% [2][4]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on technological innovation and enhancing its integrated industrial chain to improve competitiveness and market share [2][4]. - Efforts are being made to optimize product structure and improve production capacity utilization in the green petrochemical sector [2][4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as a leader in the special engineering plastics field, with a diverse product range including PA10T, PA9T, PA6T, LCP, and PPSU [2][6]. - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with significant growth in sales volume from its international bases, achieving a 28.55% increase in finished product sales in the first half of 2024 [2][7]. Product Development - The company has developed new materials suitable for robotics, including continuous carbon fiber reinforced composites and special engineering plastics [2][6]. - A new production facility for PPSU/PES synthetic resin has been successfully tested, and the LCP synthetic resin project is on track for production in Q4 2024 [2][6].
361度:公司公告点评:24Q4童装及电商提速,看好电商盈利水平提升
海通国际· 2025-01-24 14:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.35, corresponding to a 10x PE for 2025 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong turnover growth across all categories, particularly in children's wear and e-commerce, with e-commerce turnover growing 30-35% YoY in 24Q4 [8][9]. - E-commerce has been the fastest-growing channel since 2023, with expectations for improved profitability due to cost control and exclusive online products [9][10]. - The company is enhancing store efficiency and has opened its first direct store in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic expansion [10][11]. - Continuous product innovation is expected to drive turnover, with several new product launches planned for 24Q4 [10][11]. - Brand popularity is being enhanced through events and collaborations, which are expected to increase consumer engagement [11]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 8,423 million in 2023 to RMB 13,000 million by 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 13.9% [2][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 961 million in 2024 to RMB 1,475 million in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually from 41.1% in 2023 to 42% in 2026, indicating effective cost management [2][6].
首次覆盖:海澜之家深度报告:男装龙头地位稳固,联合巨头拓展增量业务
海通国际· 2025-01-24 13:28
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on HLA Group with an "Outperform" rating, setting a target price of RMB 8.56 per share [1][96]. Core Insights - HLA Group maintains its position as a leading menswear brand in China, with a strong market share and ongoing collaborations with major partners like JD.com and Adidas to expand its business [1][96]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and overseas market expansion, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 270 million in 2023, a 24.0% year-on-year increase [1][96]. - The Adidas FCC project aims to penetrate lower-tier cities, with expectations of over 400 stores by 2024, while JD Outlets is enhancing its online and offline presence [1][96]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Key financial data for HLA Group includes: - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 20.77 billion, RMB 24.13 billion, and RMB 28.13 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 2.26 billion, RMB 2.64 billion, and RMB 3.05 billion [1][96]. - The company’s revenue and net profit for 2023 were RMB 21.53 billion and RMB 2.95 billion respectively, with a projected decline in revenue for 2024 to RMB 20.77 billion [1][96]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including expected contributions from various segments such as the main brand, JD Outlets online and offline, and Adidas FCC [1][96]. Business Strategy - HLA Group is enhancing its product innovation and channel optimization strategies, focusing on cost-effective consumption through collaborations with major brands [1][96]. - The company is also expanding its product technology offerings, including advanced materials and designs, to improve competitiveness against international brands [1][96]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of the JD Outlets initiative, which aims to create a new retail model that integrates online and offline shopping experiences [1][96].