券商板块月报：券商板块2024年9月回顾及10月前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [28]. Core Insights - In September 2024, the brokerage index achieved its largest monthly increase since 2015, rising by 38.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.64 percentage points [2][5]. - The brokerage sector showed a comprehensive rebound, with most stocks experiencing significant gains, and the average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.068 and 1.496 times [2][11]. - Key factors influencing the monthly performance of listed brokerages include a notable reversal in equity realization, a significant drop in fixed income, a recovery in average daily trading volume, and a stabilization in margin financing balances [2][12][16]. Summary by Sections September Market Review - The brokerage index recorded a 38.61% increase in September, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [5]. - A total of 42 out of 43 listed brokerages saw their stock prices rise, with notable gains from Tianfeng Securities (82.92%) and Guohai Securities (64.29%) [6][7]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector reached a high of 1.496 times by the end of September [11]. October Performance Outlook - The self-operated business of listed brokerages is expected to see improved investment returns, while the brokerage business is anticipated to experience a reversal in market conditions [3][22]. - Margin financing balances stabilized, with a slight increase to 14,401 billion yuan, although the average daily balance showed a year-on-year decline [16][17]. - The investment banking business is projected to remain stable, with equity financing increasing by 52.6% month-on-month, despite a year-on-year decline [19][24]. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage index has shown strong performance and is expected to challenge the 2 times P/B valuation level in the near future [4][27]. - The report suggests maintaining a focus on leading brokerages and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [4][27].