ZY-Tungsten(002378) 民生证券·2024-10-29 12:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 6.84 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33%. The net profit for Q3 2024 was 0.34 billion yuan, up 44.42% year-on-year but down 59.64% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights that the decline in tungsten, tin, and copper prices has negatively impacted mining profits, with a 3.87 percentage point decrease in gross margin in Q3 2024 [2]. - Future growth is anticipated from the mining sector benefiting from rising tungsten prices and the continued expansion of the cutting tool business [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.76 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 10.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 191 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32.5% [4][6]. - For the years 2025 and 2026, revenues are forecasted to reach 4.38 billion yuan and 5.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 265 million yuan and 326 million yuan [4][6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 43 in 2024 to 25 in 2026, indicating improving valuation over time [4][6]. Key Business Insights - The company possesses rich upstream mineral resources, with a total tungsten resource reserve of 94,600 tons, which positions it well to benefit from rising tungsten prices [3]. - The cutting tool segment, particularly through its subsidiary Ganzhou Aoketai, is expected to become a significant growth driver, with a production capacity of 20 million pieces [3].