Tianyu Group(SZ:002354) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 13:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][12]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in revenue growth in the third quarter, with a 24% increase, although the gross margin has declined due to changes in rebate policies from live streaming platforms [1][4]. - The mobile application distribution business is a major profit source, with a steady increase in user numbers both domestically and internationally [1][4]. - The company is leveraging AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) for further commercialization, with a rich reserve of data resources [1][5][6]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of -0.09 billion, 0.63 billion, and 0.81 billion respectively, with significant growth rates anticipated in the following years [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company reported revenues of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, primarily due to the impact of its Douyin e-commerce agency business [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -8.582 million yuan, a decline of 163.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was 18.4%, down 10.9 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in the proportion of esports business and lower rebates from live streaming platforms [1][4]. Business Segments - The mobile application distribution business has seen a significant increase in users, with 12.52 million new users added in the first half of 2024, bringing total registered users to 324 million [1][4]. - The overseas mobile application distribution platform, 3u tools, reached a total of 27.37 million registered users, with 4.88 million new users added during the reporting period [1][4]. AIGC and Data Resources - The company’s AIGC capabilities have been further commercialized, with the "Wisdom Thousand Questions" model completing regulatory filings and producing over 23,000 script materials in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. - The company has accumulated approximately 4 million marketing video materials and possesses over 800,000 sets of 3D data and 350,000 sets of multimodal data, indicating a rich resource base [1][6]. Profit Forecasts - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to significant investment losses and non-recurring expenses, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being -0.09 billion, 0.63 billion, and 0.81 billion respectively [7][8]. - The overall revenue growth rates are projected at 10.0%, 5.2%, and 5.2% for the next three years [7][8].