新凤鸣：政策落地，需求有望复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.197 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 11.31% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 746 million yuan, a decrease of 15.91% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.924 billion yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year and 6.56% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 141 million yuan, down 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The demand for polyester filament continues to recover, with a cumulative apparent consumption of 8.38 million tons in Q3 2024, an increase of 5.53% year-on-year [5] - The operating rate of downstream weaving machines has rebounded from a low of 58.95% in August to 68.72% as of October 24 [5] - Recent policies aimed at boosting real estate and consumption are expected to further improve demand for polyester filament [5] - The profitability of polyester filament is expected to continue to recover, with price spreads improving in Q3 2024 [5] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1 billion yuan, 3 billion yuan, and 4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.67 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.60 yuan [5][6] Financial Data Summary - For 2024E, the company is expected to generate a revenue of 78.348 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 27.46% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024E is 1.016 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.43% compared to 2023 [6] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024E is estimated at 17.1X, decreasing to 5.8X in 2025E and 4.4X in 2026E [6] - The asset-liability ratio is reported at 68.32% [3]