农林牧渔行业投资策略月报：10月USDA跟踪月报-10月USDA下调全球小麦、玉米和大豆产量预测

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural sector is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The USDA's October report indicates a downward adjustment in global wheat, corn, and soybean production forecasts, while China's production estimates remain unchanged from September [5] - The report highlights that the average price of domestic wheat has increased, while corn prices are fluctuating and soybean prices are continuing to decline, which is beneficial for feed cost reductions in livestock enterprises [5] Summary by Sections Wheat - For the 2024/25 season, China's wheat production is projected to reach 140 million tons, an increase of 3.41 million tons from the previous season. Domestic consumption is expected to decrease by 2.5 million tons to 151 million tons, with the ending stock remaining unchanged. The stock-to-use ratio is expected to rise from 87.03% to 88.49% [2][14] - Globally, wheat production is forecasted to increase, but the stock-to-use ratio is expected to slightly decline. The global wheat production forecast for 2024/25 is adjusted down by 2.8 million tons to 794 million tons due to reduced outputs in the EU, Russia, and Brazil [17] Corn - China's corn production for 2024/25 is estimated at 292 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons from the previous season. Domestic consumption is projected to rise by 6 million tons to 313 million tons, while the ending stock is expected to decrease by 2.02 million tons, leading to a decline in the stock-to-use ratio from 68.84% to 66.88% [3][19] - Globally, corn production is expected to decrease to 1.217 billion tons, a reduction of 8.73 million tons from the previous season, while global consumption is projected to increase by 5.97 million tons [22] Soybeans - China's soybean production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 20.7 million tons, a slight decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous season. However, domestic consumption is expected to rise by 5.1 million tons to 127 million tons, with an increase in ending stocks by 2.7 million tons, raising the stock-to-use ratio from 35.54% to 36.23% [4][21] - Globally, soybean production is projected to reach 429 million tons, an increase of 34.21 million tons from the previous season, with global consumption also rising [4][21]