CSN(600029) 华创证券·2024-10-29 17:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029) [1] Core Views - China Southern Airlines achieved a net profit of 1.97 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48.9% [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 134.66 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year and 15.4% compared to 2019 [1] - The airline industry is seen as a classic domestic demand pro-cyclical sector, with potential for strong price elasticity driven by supply-demand gaps [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue was 49.87 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year and 14.1% compared to 2019 [1] - Q3 2024 net profit was 3.19 billion yuan, down 23.9% year-on-year but up 33.7% compared to 2019 [1] - The company reported a non-GAAP loss of 580 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Operational Data - ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 17.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) grew by 27.6% year-on-year for the same period [1] - Passenger load factor reached 84.0%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Cost Structure - Total operating costs for the first three quarters of 2024 were 120.7 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - Fuel costs accounted for 42.9 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-fuel costs rose by 12.1% to 77.8 billion yuan [1] Industry Outlook - The domestic aviation market showed strong recovery, with 7-day average passenger volume reaching 1.79 million in October 2024, exceeding 2019 levels by 12% [1] - Average domestic ticket prices (including fuel surcharges) were 570 yuan, down 16% year-on-year and 19% compared to 2019 [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 200 million, 7.5 billion, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively [1] - Estimated EPS for 2024-2026 are 0.01, 0.41, and 0.54 yuan [1] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 500x, 15x, and 11x respectively [1]