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顺鑫农业:24Q3点评:白酒业务基本稳定,肉类业务减亏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.317 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 382 million yuan, a significant increase of 230.72% [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, down 37.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 41 million yuan, improving from a loss of 211 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now predicting net profits of 352 million, 452 million, and 552 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 28% and 22% for 2025 and 2026 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 18.89 yuan - Market capitalization: 14,012 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.9 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 9.702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.4% [7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 34.8% in 2024E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 4.9% [7]. - The company aims to maintain stable performance in its liquor business while reducing losses in its meat segment [6][7]. Business Strategy - The liquor business remains stable, focusing on nurturing new growth points and maintaining market presence [6]. - The meat segment is undergoing structural adjustments to reduce losses, with a focus on optimizing the supply chain [6]. - The company has a strong brand presence in the liquor market, particularly with its flagship product, Niulan Mountain liquor [5][6].