Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) EBSCN·2024-10-30 01:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 28.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.99 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [1]. - The company experienced a narrowing decline in both volume and price in Q3, with revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 9% [2][3]. - Despite a challenging market environment, the company is expected to continue benefiting from lower barley prices, which will help improve profit margins [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 9% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 41.76%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.03 percentage points, attributed to lower raw material costs [3]. Sales and Market Strategy - The company increased its marketing expenditures significantly in Q3, leading to a sales expense ratio of 14.08%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Qingdao Beer has actively engaged in promotional activities, including hosting numerous beer festivals and marketing around major international events [3]. Volume and Price Trends - In Q3 2024, the sales volume was 2.155 million kiloliters, down 5.1% year-on-year, with high-end product sales declining by only 4.7% [2]. - The average price per ton in Q3 was 4,126 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to Q2 [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure on sales volume for the remainder of the year, with a projected decline of 7% year-on-year for the first three quarters [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 4.415 billion yuan, 4.846 billion yuan, and 5.171 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 4%, 2%, and 2% [4].