Shede Spirits (600702) 国联证券·2024-10-30 01:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.189 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year. The company is actively releasing inventory pressure, and the core product "Pinnacle Shide" is still in a destocking phase due to weak business demand. The main sources of growth are products like "Shen Zhi Dao" and "T68" which are positioned in the mass market. The recovery of business demand for mid-to-high-end liquor will take time. The company is adjusting its pace to destock, and while short-term performance may continue to be under pressure, the elasticity of business demand recovery is significant under the macroeconomic policy shift [2][6][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.03%, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.189 billion yuan, and the net profit was 78 million yuan [6][2]. - The company is actively releasing inventory pressure, with Q3 2024 revenue including contract liabilities amounting to 1.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.69% [6]. Product and Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 897 million yuan and 153 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 35.66% and 14.96%. For the first three quarters, mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor achieved revenues of 3.498 billion yuan and 537 million yuan, down 15.70% and 22.53% year-on-year [6]. - Regionally, Q3 2024 revenue from within the province and outside the province was 347 million yuan and 703 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 21.59% and 37.87% [6]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 63.66%, a decrease of 10.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.31 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 5.829 billion yuan, 6.007 billion yuan, and 6.333 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.152 billion yuan, and 1.332 billion yuan [6][7]. The PE ratios for these years are projected to be 25, 20, and 17 times, respectively [6].