Kouzijiao(603589) 国联证券·2024-10-30 01:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for growth driven by channel adjustments and the new product line "Jian Series" [2][5][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 11.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.62 billion, down 27.72% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][7] - The decline in high-end liquor sales is attributed to the high base effect from the launch of the "Jian Series" last year [7] - The company's channel reforms are ongoing, with the "Jian Series" showing leading channel profitability and potential to drive future growth [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 71.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90 percentage points, mainly due to the high base effect from last year's "Jian Series" product launch [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's sales revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 12.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, with sales cash receipts of RMB 14.26 billion, up 1.78% year-on-year [7] Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q3 2024, high-end/mid-range/low-end liquor sales were RMB 11.39 billion, RMB 0.13 billion, and RMB 0.21 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [7] - Regional sales in Q3 2024 were RMB 9.52 billion in the domestic market and RMB 2.21 billion in the international market, with year-on-year decreases of 22.09% and 25.59%, respectively [7] - The number of domestic and international distributors increased by 4 and 53, respectively, reaching 500 and 508 by the end of Q3 2024 [7] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 57.21 billion, RMB 57.44 billion, and RMB 58.74 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.05%, +0.42%, and +2.26%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 16.35 billion, RMB 16.45 billion, and RMB 16.88 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.03%, +0.64%, and +2.58%, respectively [7] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 16X, 16X, and 15X, respectively [7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector [5] - The report highlights the company's potential to benefit from the overall growth of the Anhui liquor market, with ongoing channel adjustments and the "Jian Series" expected to contribute to future growth [2][7]