锂电行业2025年投资策略：从周期和成长视角把握拐点

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the Electric Equipment and New Energy sector [4] Core Views - The lithium battery industry is at a historical valuation low and the bottom of the cycle, with supply contraction and limited expansion capacity due to tightened financing [2] - The industry's profitability is expected to recover in 2025, driven by strong demand for energy storage and the recovery of growth in Europe due to carbon emission constraints [2] - The report highlights the importance of capacity utilization and technological advancements in determining the profitability gap between leading and second-tier battery manufacturers [2] Cycle Perspective Capacity Cycle - Capital expenditure in the lithium battery industry contracted by 20% YoY in H1 2024, reaching a historical low of 2.7x depreciation and amortization [2] - The industry's capital expenditure is increasingly tilted towards upstream sectors, with only leading companies having the ability to expand due to better cash flow generation [2] - The capacity cycle is expected to improve in 2025, with profitability recovering across most segments [2] Profit Cycle - The profit cycle is bottoming out, with capacity utilization becoming the dominant factor in determining profitability [2] - The cost curve for battery production has become steeper, with third-tier battery manufacturers already operating at a loss [2] - Profitability improvements are expected to continue, driven by economies of scale and higher capacity utilization [2] Growth Perspective Global Lithium Battery Demand - Global lithium battery demand is projected to grow by 27% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, reaching 1,228 GWh and 1,531 GWh, respectively [2] - Energy storage is expected to be the fastest-growing segment, with a 67% growth rate in 2024, followed by electric vehicles in China (32%) and the US (10%) [2] European Carbon Policy - Europe's carbon emission policies are expected to drive a recovery in electric vehicle demand, with a projected growth rate of 25% to 50% in 2025 [2] - The report estimates that a 40% growth rate in electric vehicle sales is necessary for Europe to meet its carbon emission targets [2] Energy Storage Demand - The declining cost of photovoltaic and energy storage systems (LCOE) is driving rapid growth in energy storage demand, particularly in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2] - The report highlights the potential for sustained growth in energy storage demand in these regions due to favorable economic conditions, sunlight availability, and electricity prices [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong competitive positions and cost advantages, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and others in the lithium battery supply chain [2] Key Figures and Data - Lithium battery industry capital expenditure in H1 2024: 64.6 billion yuan, down 20% YoY [2] - Global lithium battery demand in 2024: 1,228 GWh, with energy storage growing at 67% [2] - European electric vehicle sales growth in 2025: 25% to 50%, depending on carbon policy enforcement [2]