南方航空：Q3旺季出行旺盛，量增推动收入增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 134.66 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.96 billion RMB, up 48.9% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 49.87 billion RMB, a 4.6% year-on-year increase, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.19 billion RMB, down 23.9% [2][3]. - The increase in revenue in Q3 was primarily driven by a surge in travel demand, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing by 19% year-on-year, including a 62% increase in international routes [3]. - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased by 4% year-on-year due to lower oil prices, while the gross margin was 15.4%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates that the mid-term supply-demand optimization in the airline industry will improve profitability, supported by consumer confidence recovery and various consumption promotion policies [3]. Summary by Sections Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 134.66 billion RMB, a 12.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.96 billion RMB, a 48.9% increase [2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 49.87 billion RMB, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 3.19 billion RMB, a decrease of 23.9% [2]. Analysis - The increase in Q3 revenue was driven by a 19% year-on-year increase in revenue passenger kilometers, with domestic routes up 9%, international routes up 62%, and regional routes up 35% [3]. - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased to 0.42 RMB, a 4% decrease year-on-year, while the gross margin was 15.4%, down 1.8 percentage points [3]. - The report suggests that mid-term supply-demand optimization in the airline industry could enhance profitability, with a projected increase in passenger demand and potential fare increases [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 0.4 billion RMB for 2024, 6.9 billion RMB for 2025, and 11.3 billion RMB for 2026 [3].