CMOC(603993) 国信证券·2024-10-30 01:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum Co Ltd (603993 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Luoyang Molybdenum Co Ltd achieved significant profit growth in 2024 Q1-Q3 with a 239% YoY increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][5] - The company's copper production increased by 57% in 2024 Q1-Q3 driven by both volume and price growth [1][5] - TFM and KFM two major copper mines achieved full production and overproduction in 2024 Q3 [1][5] - The company is expected to double its copper production by 2024 compared to 2022 and increase cobalt production by 200% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co Ltd is projected to become one of the top 10 global copper producers and the world's largest cobalt producer [2] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue reached 154 8 billion yuan (+17 5% YoY) with net profit attributable to shareholders of 8 27 billion yuan (+238 6% YoY) [1][5] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 86 billion yuan (+64 1% YoY -14 6% QoQ) [1][5] - Operating cash flow for 2024 Q1-Q3 was 17 28 billion yuan [1][5] - Copper production cost in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 31 123 yuan/ton slightly higher than H1 2024 but significantly lower than 2023 [2][6] - Cobalt production cost in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 53 358 yuan/ton slightly higher than H1 2024 [2][6] Project Development - TFM West and KFM Phase II projects have commenced preliminary exploration with good results [2][7] - The Nzilo II hydropower station agreement in Congo (DRC) with 200 MW capacity will provide long-term stable power supply for the company's million-ton copper production capacity [2][7] Financial Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11 504/12 393/14 650 billion yuan with YoY growth rates of 39 4%/7 7%/18 2% [2] - 2024-2026 diluted EPS is expected to be 0 53/0 57/0 68 yuan with corresponding PE ratios of 14 3/13 3/11 3X [2] - 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 249 638/253 300/261 709 billion yuan with YoY growth rates of 34 0%/1 5%/3 3% [3] Industry Position - Luoyang Molybdenum Co Ltd is one of the few large global copper mining companies maintaining high growth in copper production [2] - The company's copper production is expected to double within two years due to the construction and operation of two world-class projects [2]