冰轮环境：2024Q3点评：Q3营收同比降16.5%，静待订单拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.956 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.606 billion yuan, also down 16.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 143 million yuan, a decline of 26.1% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue continued to face pressure, reflecting a trend that began in the second half of 2023. The central air conditioning segment (Dunhanbushi Group) generated approximately 1.16 billion yuan in revenue, showing a growth of 4.3% year-on-year, but this growth rate has significantly slowed compared to 2023. The revenue from refrigeration compressor equipment is expected to decline year-on-year due to high base effects from the previous year and weak demand this year [4][5]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 9.80%, a slight decrease of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin was 28.07%, down 1.08 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio increased to 19.78%, up 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in foreign exchange gains and increases in management and sales expense ratios [6]. Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024 was -377 million yuan, 118 million yuan, and 181 million yuan, respectively, with Q3 cash flow net amount decreasing by 25.1% year-on-year. The cash collection ratio for the first three quarters was 92.4%, slightly down by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has over 60 years of experience in compressor technology and holds a leading market share of over 30% in the cold chain sector. The "14th Five-Year Plan" for cold chain logistics is expected to drive an investment scale of approximately 71.7 billion yuan in refrigeration compressor equipment. The company is also well-positioned in the energy and chemical sectors, with significant demand for orders in petrochemicals, LNG, and lithium batteries. Future growth is anticipated in carbon capture and hydrogen energy equipment [7]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.93 billion yuan, 7.51 billion yuan, and 8.26 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -7.5%, +8.3%, and +10.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 592 million yuan, 659 million yuan, and 728 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of -9.6%, +11.4%, and +10.5%. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are estimated at 13.2x, 11.8x, and 10.7x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6][7].