CSN(SH:600029) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-30 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Core Views - The company experienced an increase in volume but a decrease in price during the third quarter, with profits aligning with expectations. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 19.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.86% [1][3]. - The report highlights that the company's operational capacity continues to recover, with a significant improvement in passenger load factors, positioning it as a leader among major airlines [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023A: 159,929 million yuan - 2024E: 175,662 million yuan (10% growth YoY) - 2025E: 200,409 million yuan (14% growth YoY) - 2026E: 211,293 million yuan (5% growth YoY) [1][3]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: -4,209 million yuan - 2024E: 1,669 million yuan (140% growth YoY) - 2025E: 5,473 million yuan (228% growth YoY) - 2026E: 7,895 million yuan (44% growth YoY) [1][3]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: -0.23 yuan - 2024E: 0.09 yuan - 2025E: 0.30 yuan - 2026E: 0.44 yuan [1][3]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: -8% - 2024E: 3% - 2025E: 9% - 2026E: 11% [1][3]. Operational Highlights - The company added 5 aircraft in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total fleet size of 913 aircraft as of September 2024, reflecting a 28% increase compared to the end of 2023 [1]. - The passenger turnover (RPK) for the first three quarters of 2024 showed significant recovery, with domestic and international load factors improving to 81% and 72% respectively, marking a notable increase from the previous year [1][3].