Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-30 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Outperform the Market" [3][6][9] Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a decline in sales volume in the third quarter, primarily due to weak demand in the beer consumption market. The company’s beer sales volume decreased by 5.11% year-on-year in Q3 [4][5] - The company maintains its high-end strategy and focuses on long-term growth quality, awaiting improvement in demand. The beer industry faces challenges due to low consumer demand and the absence of dining and nightlife consumption scenarios [5][6] - The company continues to promote product innovation and structural optimization, emphasizing the Qingdao and Laoshan brands while accelerating the cultivation of premium products [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved total revenue of 28.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.990 billion yuan, an increase of 1.67% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 8.891 billion yuan, down 5.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.348 billion yuan, down 9.03% year-on-year [4][6] - The gross profit margin in Q3 increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw material costs, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 15.2% [5][6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Qingdao Beer has been adjusted downwards due to ongoing demand pressures. Expected revenues for 2024-2026 are 32.22 billion, 32.52 billion, and 32.86 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.1%, +0.9%, and +1.1% [6][8] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 4.455 billion, 4.737 billion, and 4.985 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +4.4%, +6.3%, and +5.2% [6][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 3.27, 3.47, and 3.65 yuan, respectively [6][8]