Zhongtai Cryogenic(300435) 东方财富·2024-10-30 02:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (300435) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed a revenue of 2.012 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 189 million yuan, down 26.99% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 644 million yuan, an increase of 10.95% year-on-year, while net profit was 66 million yuan, down 12.30% year-on-year [1] - The equipment business is under short-term pressure due to long delivery cycles of 14-16 months, resulting in fewer confirmed orders in the first three quarters of 2024. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 19.03%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense domestic competition and the delayed recognition of high-margin overseas orders [1] - There is strong demand for overseas deep-freezing equipment, with the company gradually entering a harvest period. The company has become a qualified supplier for important clients in various countries, benefiting from high overseas demand. As of H1 2024, the order backlog was 2.132 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, with over 30% from overseas [1] - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 7.34%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, driven by rising management, R&D, and sales expenses [1] Financial Summary - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 297 million yuan, 388 million yuan, and 457 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times, respectively. The report anticipates that the company's competitiveness in overseas markets will continue to improve, with high-margin export orders being confirmed next year [4] - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 3.047 billion yuan, 2.834 billion yuan, 3.400 billion yuan, and 4.081 billion yuan, with growth rates of -6.42%, -7.00%, 19.97%, and 20.03% respectively [4] - The EBITDA for the same years is projected at 506 million yuan, 502 million yuan, 638 million yuan, and 749 million yuan [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 18.49% in 2024E to 20.61% in 2026E, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 11.18% in 2026E [6]