Xinjiang Tianfu Energy (SH:600509) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-10-30 02:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianfu Energy (600509.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter met expectations, with revenue of 6.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 494 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [1][2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the sale of carbon emission quotas, while the decline in non-recurring profit is due to adjustments in agricultural electricity prices [2] - The company completed the sale of 700,000 tons of carbon emission quotas in July, contributing 60 million yuan to the third quarter's non-operating income, which was a key factor for the positive growth in net profit [2] - The company is expected to face a revenue impact of approximately 172 million yuan in 2024 due to the reduction in agricultural electricity prices [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 6.745 billion yuan, with a net profit of 494 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 423 million yuan [1] - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 2.195 billion yuan, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 125 million yuan [1] Market Position - The company is the only listed platform for the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' power industry chain, and it is expected that the electricity pricing mechanism will be further streamlined [4] - The company is closely tied to the economic development of the region, and its performance is highly correlated with the demand for electricity from downstream users [4] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have net profits of 605 million yuan, 741 million yuan, and 843 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 22%, and 14% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16, 13, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]