Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haier Smart Home and raises the target price to HK 29.80 [1][4]. Core Insights - Haier's 3Q24 results were in line with expectations, with a 1% YoY sales increase to RMB 67.3 billion and a 13% YoY net profit growth to RMB 4.7 billion. The company is expected to see a decent pickup in 4Q24 due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and internal efficiency improvements [1][6]. - The management has set a net profit growth target of 15% per annum, supported by various cost-saving initiatives and operational efficiency gains [1][6]. - The report highlights significant sales growth drivers, including improved sales trends in China, strong demand for the Casarte brand, and positive developments in the US and European markets [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 271.8 billion in FY24E to RMB 304.8 billion in FY26E, with a CAGR of 5.4% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 19.8 billion in FY24E to RMB 24.5 billion in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][11]. - The report revises FY24E/25E/26E net profit forecasts upward by 1%/3%/2% to account for efficiency gains and cost savings [1][7]. Operational Efficiency - Haier is implementing a series of reforms aimed at enhancing operational efficiency, including digitalization efforts and structural changes in procurement and R&D processes [1][6]. - The acquisition of Goodday, a logistics provider, is expected to yield significant synergies, including a 20-30% reduction in inventory levels and a 10% decrease in total logistics costs [1][6]. Market Position - Haier's stock is currently trading at 13x/11x FY24E/FY25E P/E, which is below its 5-year average of 15x, indicating potential undervaluation [1][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business model and enhancing brand equity through value-added products and services [1][6].
海尔智家：A rosy 4Q24E with mid-term reform announced