Haitong Securities·2024-10-30 03:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua (601088) is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the coal and power business has shown resilience with a quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 2024, despite a challenging market environment [5] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 166 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.7% [5] - The report emphasizes the stability of coal profits due to a high proportion of long-term contracts, and the power segment is expected to contribute additional growth through new thermal power installations [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 253.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 46.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year change of +0.6% and -4.5% respectively [5] - The coal segment's sales volume for the first three quarters was 244.4 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [5] - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2024 was 560 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] Coal Segment - The coal segment's revenue for the first three quarters was 201.3 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 58.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.6% and -3.3% respectively [5] - The unit cost of self-produced coal decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 186.3 yuan per ton [5] Power Segment - The power segment achieved a revenue of 70.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a gross profit of 11.2 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decrease in gross profit margin [5] - The total electricity sales volume in Q3 2024 was 64.1 billion kWh, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 33% [5] Railway Segment - The railway segment reported a revenue of 32.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a gross profit margin of 38.8% [5] - The unit transportation price increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 58.3 billion, 59.6 billion, and 60.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.93, 3.00, and 3.02 yuan [5] - The report assigns a reasonable valuation range of 43.99 to 46.92 yuan based on a PE ratio of 15-16x for 2024 [5]