TongQingLou Catering (SH:605108) Haitong Securities·2024-10-30 03:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue of 1.23% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with total revenue of 594 million yuan. The net profit for the same period dropped significantly by 95.74% to 2.45 million yuan, primarily due to high operating costs and the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations [5][6] - The company is expected to experience a recovery in net profit starting in 2025, with projected net profits of 1.32 billion yuan, 3.05 billion yuan, and 4.13 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a growth trajectory after a decline in 2024 [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.865 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.81%. However, same-store sales decreased by 13.42% compared to 2023 [6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 7.91 percentage points to 17.37%, with an overall gross margin of 20.23% for the first three quarters [7] Cost and Expenses - The increase in costs is attributed to rising raw material prices, higher delivery platform fees, and increased labor costs. The operating expense ratio rose to 14.29% for the first three quarters of 2024 [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to have a net profit of 132 million yuan in 2024, a significant decrease of 56.5% year-on-year, followed by a recovery with projected profits of 305 million yuan in 2025 and 413 million yuan in 2026 [9][12] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 21.12 and 26.09 yuan per share, based on a PE ratio of 18-20 times for 2025 [8][9]