东鹏控股：收入压力扩大，盈利领先同行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongpeng Holdings (003012.SZ) is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company faced significant revenue pressure, with a 18% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters, totaling 4.68 billion yuan. Net profit dropped by 51% to 310 million yuan, and the non-recurring net profit decreased by 49% [3][4]. - The revenue decline is attributed to weak demand in the real estate sector, with a cumulative 24% decrease in housing completion area from January to September. However, there is an expectation for stabilization in demand for existing properties, as second-hand housing area is projected to grow by 44% year-on-year [3][4]. - Despite the decline in profitability, the company maintains a relatively high profit margin compared to industry peers, with a gross margin of approximately 31.2% for the first three quarters [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3, the company reported revenue of 1.59 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 60% [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was approximately 32.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was about 6.2%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory - The company has a strong cash flow position, with a cash flow net inflow of 490 million yuan for the first three quarters. The cash collection ratio for the first three quarters was 1.23 [5]. - However, inventory turnover days increased to approximately 152 days, up 28 days year-on-year, indicating slower inventory consumption due to weakened demand [5]. Industry Context - The ceramic tile industry is undergoing a supply reduction, with a 50% shutdown rate reported in the first half of 2024. Despite this, new production lines are still being established, indicating ongoing capacity expansion efforts [5]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 420 million yuan and 550 million yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 18 and 14 times [5].