伟星新材：业绩仍具韧性，毛利率维持高位

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][3][10] Core Views - The company's performance remains resilient, with a gross margin maintaining a high level despite a challenging industry environment. Revenue for the third quarter decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 43.1% [3][5] - The operating cash flow is stable, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.1 billion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year's 8.0 billion yuan. The company's financial condition is strong, with a debt-to-asset ratio of only 24.0% [3][4] - The investment suggestion reflects a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to weaker-than-expected industry recovery. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 11.5 billion yuan, 12.7 billion yuan, and 13.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9x, 18.9x, and 17.2x. Despite the profit forecast downgrade, the company's strong brand, service, and channel competitiveness, along with a high dividend yield, indicate a favorable outlook [3][4][9] Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 6.273 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.6% from the previous year. The net profit is projected to be 1.147 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 20.0% [4][9] - The gross margin is expected to be 42.0% for 2024, consistent with the previous year's performance, while the net margin is projected to be 18.3% [4][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease to 19.7% in 2024, with a gradual recovery in subsequent years [4][9] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The net cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 1.430 billion yuan for 2024, with a gradual increase expected in the following years [8][9] - The total assets are expected to grow from 7.292 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.054 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a positive trend in asset accumulation [7][9] - The company's liquidity remains strong, with a current ratio of 4.0 in 2024, suggesting a solid ability to meet short-term obligations [9]