KELUN PHARMA(002422)2024-10-30 06:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.789 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.471 billion yuan, up 25.85% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.447 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.32% [1] - The third quarter revenue was 4.962 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 671 million yuan, up 19.88% year-on-year [1] - The company has seen a significant reduction in sales expense ratio to 15.57%, down 5.07 percentage points year-on-year, and a decrease in R&D expense ratio to 9.44%, down 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 49.35%, down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 14.21%, up 2.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to launch four products in China by the end of 2024 or early 2025, indicating a strong pipeline for innovation [1] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 22.867 billion yuan, 24.786 billion yuan, and 27.428 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.59%, 8.39%, and 10.66% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.039 billion yuan in 2024, 3.505 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.056 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 23.72%, 15.34%, and 15.72% respectively [2] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.90 yuan in 2024, 2.19 yuan in 2025, and 2.53 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.51, 15.18, and 13.12 [2] Financial Statements - The total assets are projected to grow from 36.455 billion yuan in 2023 to 51.558 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The total liabilities are expected to decrease slightly from 13.439 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.432 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.285 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 13.29% [4]