WANFENG AUTO WHEEL(002085) 国元证券·2024-10-30 06:43Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price of 17.2 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is steady, with strong development in the general aviation business [2] - The company's automotive metal component lightweighting business is well-positioned in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, while the general aviation business is tapping into the low-altitude economy [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.587 billion yuan, 18.060 billion yuan, and 19.849 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.61 yuan [4] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.370 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, but a 4.23% increase when excluding the impact of the divestiture of Wuxi Xiongwei's high-strength steel stamping business [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 564 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%, while non-GAAP net profit was 499 million yuan, up 3.20% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 3.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.28%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 165 million yuan, down 24.02% year-on-year [2] - The automotive metal component lightweighting business generated revenue of 9.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%, while the general aviation aircraft manufacturing business achieved revenue of 1.987 billion yuan, up 7.49% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Cost Control - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 17.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.45 percentage points [3] - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio were 1.22%, 4.89%, and 2.86%, respectively, showing good control over period expenses [3] Business Development - The company is strengthening cooperation with core NEV customers, optimizing product structure, and increasing the application of large-size wheels and magnesium alloy die-cast parts in mid-to-high-end and NEV models [3] - The general aviation aircraft manufacturing business has sufficient orders, with ongoing optimization of sales and global private aircraft market expansion [3] - The company is focusing on the development of electric aircraft and eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) vehicles, aligning with the national low-altitude economy development strategy [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.91% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 19.849 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.72% over the same period, reaching 1.300 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - The company's ROE is forecasted to increase from 13.44% in 2024 to 14.54% in 2026 [6] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 39.65x in 2024 to 29.29x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability and earnings growth [6]