宏观观点：日本政坛突变，自民党失去众议院多数席位

Group 1: Election Results - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seats decreased significantly to 191 from 247, marking the first loss of majority since 2012[7] - The coalition partner Komeito's seats fell from 32 to 24, resulting in a combined total of 215 seats, below the simple majority threshold of 233[7] - The largest opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), increased its seats from 98 to 148, indicating a rise in opposition power[9] Group 2: Political Implications - The election results create uncertainty for the upcoming prime minister election, with a special session of the Diet to be held within 30 days[9] - Shigeru Ishiba, the current LDP president, is likely to become prime minister, but faces challenges in forming a stable government due to the loss of majority[9] - Noda Yoshihiko, leader of the CDP, is a strong contender for the prime minister position, advocating for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies[10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Expansionary fiscal policies may benefit the Japanese stock market but could pressure the yen[10] - The next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is anticipated in January 2025, following an unexpected rate increase in August 2023[10] - Historical trends suggest that political instability and slow policy processes may hinder market performance despite potential fiscal benefits[11]