公用事业行业周报：碳排放统计核算体系政策发布，长期利好绿电发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The recent release of the carbon emission statistical accounting system policy is expected to benefit the development of green electricity in the long term [1][2]. - The national carbon market's trading volume has decreased, but prices remain at historical highs, indicating a tightening of future quota distribution policies [1][13][14]. - The report highlights the importance of the unified national electricity market construction and suggests focusing on power operators that benefit from the improved auxiliary service market mechanism [28]. Market Performance - As of October 25, 2024, the utility sector (Shenwan) rose by 0.79%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.01 percentage points, ranking 26th among Shenwan's first-level industries [4]. - Sub-sectors showed varied performance: thermal power increased by 1.72%, hydropower decreased by 2.82%, photovoltaic power rose by 6.49%, wind power increased by 4.91%, gas increased by 1.29%, thermal services rose by 5.69%, and comprehensive electricity services increased by 2.8% [4][7]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 25, 2024, the utility sector's PE (TTM) is 17.12 times, with various sub-sectors showing different valuations: thermal power at 11.84 times, hydropower at 21.77 times, photovoltaic power at 24.95 times, wind power at 19 times, gas at 15.39 times, thermal services at 17.19 times, and comprehensive electricity services at 20.95 times [10]. - The PB (LF) for the utility sector is 1.55 times, with thermal power at 1.08 times, hydropower at 2.71 times, photovoltaic power at 1.03 times, wind power at 1.45 times, gas at 1.76 times, thermal services at 1.5 times, and comprehensive electricity services at 1.45 times [11]. Carbon Market Insights - The national carbon market's total trading volume reached 301.77 million tons as of October 25, 2024, with a weekly decrease of 12.66% and an average transaction price of 101.7 yuan/ton, which increased by 1.47% week-on-week [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of market expectations regarding future quota distribution policies and the legal responsibilities for quota compliance, which are expected to maintain high carbon prices [14][26]. Water Resource Data - As of October 27, 2024, the average inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir was 9285.71 cubic meters per second, showing a week-on-week decrease of 13.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.88% [17][21].