纽威数控：收入韧性增长，Q3业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.834 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.45%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.53% to 228 million yuan, aligning with expectations [3][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 672 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.37% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.42%. The net profit for the quarter was 83 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.12% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.18% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 29, 2024, was 16.91 yuan, with a one-year high of 22.78 yuan and a low of 11.81 yuan. The company has a market capitalization of 5.524 billion yuan and a price-to-book ratio of 3.5 [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.47%, down by 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.41%, down by 1.16 percentage points [5]. - The company’s total revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 2.513 billion yuan, 2.936 billion yuan, and 3.375 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 326 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 481 million yuan [7]. Industry Context - The machine tool industry is experiencing weak demand, with the company’s revenue growth indicating resilience amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. The industry saw a 3.5% decline in revenue and a 9.9% drop in total profit for key enterprises from January to August 2024 [4]. - The company’s production capacity is nearly fully utilized, with ongoing projects expected to enhance capacity further by mid-2025 [5]. Profitability Outlook - The report has adjusted the profit forecast downward due to slow domestic demand recovery, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 revised to 326 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 481 million yuan, respectively [6]. - The company’s current price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 17, 14, and 11 times, respectively, which is lower than the industry average of 22 times [6].