中金黄金：24Q3业绩符合预期，矿金销量环比提升

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [3][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a sequential increase in gold sales [3] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached RMB 46.04 billion (YoY +1.1%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.64 billion (YoY +27.6%) [5] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 17.51 billion (YoY +9.2%, QoQ +13.95%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 900 million (YoY +27.3%, QoQ -6.2%) [5] - The company is a central state-owned enterprise in the gold industry, with annual gold production nearing 20 tons, and benefits from rising gold and copper prices [7] - Group asset injections are expected to drive future growth in gold production [7] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross margin was 15.4% (YoY +2.8pct), while Q3 gross margin was 13.55% (YoY +1.2pct, QoQ -4.5pct) [5] - 2024 Q1-Q3 gold and copper sales decreased by 4.4% and 4.7% YoY, respectively [6] - Q3 2024 gold sales increased by 3.4% QoQ, while copper sales decreased by 3.8% QoQ [6] - The company plans to produce 18.6 tons of gold and 7.6 million tons of copper in 2024 [6] Asset Injections and Resource Reserves - As of the end of 2023, the company's gold resource reserves reached 891.7 tons [7] - In H1 2024, geological exploration investments totaled RMB 106.52 million, adding 12.7 tons of gold reserves [7] - The company acquired 100% of Laizhou Zhongjin in 2023, holding a 44% stake in the Shaling Gold Mine, which has 372 tons of gold reserves [7] - In 2023, the company acquired a 39% stake in Inner Mongolia Jintao for RMB 470 million, which generated a net profit of RMB 67 million in H1 2024 [7] Valuation and Forecasts - The company's P/E ratio for 2024/2025/2026 is estimated at 19/17/15 times, with net profit forecasts of RMB 3.72/4.20/4.73 billion [7] - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 67.96 billion (YoY +10.9%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.72 billion (YoY +25%) [8] - 2025E revenue is expected to grow to RMB 70.46 billion (YoY +3.7%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.20 billion (YoY +12.8%) [8] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at RMB 73.88 billion (YoY +4.9%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.73 billion (YoY +12.6%) [8]