黄金的相关话题 再次冲上微博热搜 引发网友热议 据央视财经，国际金价显著上涨，重回每盎司3400美元关口上方，涨至五周以来高位。截至当地时间21日收盘，纽约商品交易所8月黄金期价收于每盎司 3406.4美元，涨幅为1.43%。此外，COMEX黄金期货涨1.6%，报3412美元/盎司，现货白银涨幅也扩大至2%，报38.939美元/盎司。 7月22日晚间，伦敦现货黄金短线直线拉升，截至发稿，报3416.65美元/盎司。现货白银也突破7月14日以来的新高。 随着现货黄金猛然"狂飙"，黄金板块集体上扬，黄金股多数走强。截至7月22日收盘，西部黄金上涨6.97%，报20.86元/股；中金黄金上涨3.14%，报15.78 元/股；山东黄金上涨2.61%，报31.9元/股；紫金矿业上涨2.32%，报20.25元/股。 今年以来，现货黄金以2623美元/盎司开盘之后，一路上涨，在4月22日最高冲至3499.45美元/盎司，最高涨幅突破30%，此后开始高位震荡。 受此影响，国内金价同步回涨，多数国内金店金饰价格重返千元关口。 黄金企业上半年业绩亮眼 与年初相比，目前国际黄金期货价格已经上涨约28%。受益于此，黄金企业上半年业绩 ...

业 研 行 行业周报 相关稳增长政策将出台，大型水电工程正式开工 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 07 月 22 日 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 山东黄金 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 04/22 05/22 06/22 风险提示 原材料价格波动风险、下游需求不及预期风险、地缘政治扰动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 18 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁：7 月 19 日雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式举行，该工程将建设 5 座 梯级电站，总投资约 1.2 万亿元；考虑到该工程对水轮发电机组需求较大，同 时可能面临高海拔腐蚀环境，或对特种钢需求带动较大，可关注特种钢（如高 强度不锈钢、水电钢、耐候钢）领域。短期累库压力有 ...

截至2025年7月22日 13:43，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.86%，成分股中钨高新(000657)上 涨10.02%，雅化集团(002497)上涨9.99%，神火股份(000933)上涨6.42%，电投能源(002128)，洛阳钼业 (603993)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨1.45%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报1.26元。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、中国铝业(601600)、山东黄金(600547)、华友钴业 (603799)、中金黄金(600489)、赣锋锂业(002460)、赤峰黄金(600988)、云铝股份(000807)，前十大权重 股合计占比50.02%。 有色ETF基金(159880)，场外联接A：021296；联接C：021297；联接I：022886。022886)。 国元证券指出，受区域冲突、关税政策、部分国家政策等多方面因素影响，部分金属供给端出现不足， 加剧市场需求情绪，叠加反内卷行情持续演绎，国内金属 ...

22日，黄金的相关话题冲上微博热搜，引发网友热议。 不过22日早间，现货黄金高位回落，盘中直线下挫，截至上午10时，报3386.600美元/盎司。 金价大涨，重回3400美元 21日晚，现货黄金大涨，涨超1.5%，重返3400美元/盎司上方。 此外，COMEX期货黄金涨1.6%，报3412美元/盎司。现货白银涨幅也扩大至2%，报38.939美元/盎司。 黄金企业上半年业绩亮眼 与年初相比，目前国际黄金期货价格已经上涨约28%。受益于此， 黄金企业上半年业绩亮眼 。 图片来源：千图网 西部黄金 称，经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润为1.30亿元 至1.60亿元 ，同比将增加6379.07万元-9379.07万元，同比增加96.35%-141.66%。 山东黄金 预计2025年上半年度实现归母 净利润25.5亿元至30.5亿元 ，同比增加84.3%到120.5%；实现归 母扣非净利润25.5亿元至30.5亿元，同比增加80.3%到115.6%。 中金黄金 预计今年上半年实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润为26.14亿元至28.75亿元 ，与上年同期相 比(同比)将增加8.71 ...

仍然看好金银比向下修复，白银价格潜力大 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 9.2 15.8 22.4 沪深 300 5.5 7.6 14.7 2025 年 07 月 21 日 ▌贵金属：黄金仍然处于盘整阶段，伦银再创多年新 高 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：白银价格 大幅上行，金银比或迎来向下修复 期》2025-07-14 2、《有色金属行业周报：需求淡 季，铜铝价格走高后或以高位震荡 为主》2025-07-07 3、《有色金属行业周报：美联储点 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 3355.10 美元/盎司，环比 7 月 11 日+3.00 美元/盎司，涨幅为 0.09%。周内伦敦白银价格为 38.27 美元/盎司，环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has led to significant profit increases for gold mining companies, with all eight listed companies reporting over 50% year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Gold Mining Companies - Eight gold mining companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with net profits collectively expected to reach between 31.76 billion to 32.81 billion yuan, all showing a year-on-year increase [2]. - Major companies like Zijin Mining are expected to report a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, a 54% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing their total profit for 2023 in just the first half [2][3]. - China National Gold and Shandong Gold are also expected to report substantial profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit forecasted to rise by 84.3% to 120.5% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold peaking at 3,500 USD per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 26% [2]. - Despite strong earnings, gold mining stocks have shown signs of weakness in the secondary market, with several stocks experiencing declines in the past month [9]. - The correlation between gold prices and mining stock prices remains strong in the short term, but long-term performance will depend on resource reserves, cost control, and acquisition capabilities [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates continued production increases among gold mining companies, driven by high gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that while gold and gold stocks have potential for further upward movement, external factors such as U.S. tariff uncertainties and rising deficits may impact future price dynamics [10].

2025年开年以来，黄金价格持续震荡走高。 下半年黄金价格有望继续强势 截至6月30日末，伦敦金现年内累计涨幅达25.84%，当日收盘价达3302.155美元/盎司；COMEX黄金年 内累计涨幅达25.52%，当日收盘价达3315.0美元/盎司；SHFE黄金年内累计涨幅达24.47%，当日收盘价 达767.58元/克。 金价"水位"持续攀升，A股黄金矿企上市公司业绩也"水涨船高"。截至7月17日记者发稿时，A股共7家 上市公司披露2025年半年度业绩预告，这7家上市公司业绩悉数同比预增，其中预计增幅最大的为西部 黄金股份有限公司（以下简称"西部黄金"），预计最高业绩增幅达141.66%。 业绩与股价"齐飞" 根据已披露业绩预告的7家企业情况来看，仅湖南黄金股份有限公司（以下简称"湖南黄金"）预计公司 归属于上市公司股东的净利润不足10亿元，其他6家企业预计归属于上市公司股东净利润均超10亿元， 其中紫金矿业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"紫金矿业"）预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的 净利润约232亿元，与上年同期151亿元相比，将增加约81亿元。 此次披露业绩预告的7家上市公司中，预计业绩增幅在50% ...

上半年金矿股大赚 金价狂飙，金矿股业绩大增。 截至7月17日，8家金矿上市公司披露了上半年业绩预告，且均实现预增。 据Wind数据统计，已披露业绩预告的8家公司净利润同比增幅均超过50%，其中3家净利润同比增幅超100%。 今年上半年，关税风险推动金价迭创新高，伦敦金一度站上3500美元/盎司，年内涨幅约26%。基于此，黄金股的"业绩牛"行情再度上演。 当前黄金在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段，二季度以来，金价整体处于盘整状态。金价上行预期分化下，这场由"金价红利"驱动的业绩盛宴还能延 续多久？ 上半年黄金股大赚，头部企业贡献近九成利润 据Wind统计，已披露业绩预告的8家金矿股，上半年净利润合计317.613亿元～328.063亿元。其中，头部企业的规模优势进一步放大。 中金黄金（600489.SH）、和山东黄金（600547.SH）则紧随其后，两家公司净利润额相当。 其中，中金黄金预计今年上半年净利润为26.14亿元～28.75亿元，同比增加50%～65%。山东黄金预计上半年净利润为25.5亿元～30.5亿元，同比增加84.3% ～120.5%。 截至目前，上述三家行业头部企业合计实现净利润至少283 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][15]. Core Insights - The report anticipates significant earnings growth for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2025, with some companies expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth due to rising metal prices and increased production [4][5]. - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise, driven by changes in monetary credit structures and low gold reserves in China, suggesting a sustained upward movement in gold prices [5]. - The copper market is projected to experience a long-term bullish cycle due to limited new supply and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [5]. - The steel industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as the government addresses low-price competition among enterprises [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Key companies such as Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining are highlighted for their strong earnings growth potential in 2025H1, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuation of the gold sector, suggesting potential for recovery and recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to limited new supply and increasing demand, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended for investment [5]. - The aluminum sector is projected to recover significantly in 2025, with companies like Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao highlighted for their cost improvements and stable dividends [5]. Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with government measures to optimize supply and demand, recommending companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel for their stable earnings [5][10]. Growth Cycle Investment - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center for stable supply-demand sectors like new energy manufacturing is expected to rise, recommending companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the steel industry is experiencing manageable inventory pressure, indicating limited supply-demand conflicts. The recovery in raw material prices provides support for prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment boosts market confidence, leading to expectations of a strong fluctuation in steel prices in the short term [3][16]. - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but U.S. tariff policies increase trade uncertainty, which may put pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - The aluminum market faces macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory supports prices. However, weak downstream demand during the off-season is expected to lead to price fluctuations [3][46]. - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - The lithium market is under pressure from potential oversupply, despite the "anti-involution" sentiment providing some support for prices [3][52]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is facing limited supply-demand conflicts, with inventory pressure being manageable. The raw material price recovery is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment is boosting market confidence, leading to expectations of strong fluctuations in steel prices [3][16]. - As of July 11, the total steel inventory was 13.33 million tons, down 0.03% from the previous week and down 23.26% year-on-year [25]. - The average price index for steel on July 11 was 3,428.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices. However, the U.S. tariff policy adds trade uncertainty, potentially putting pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - On July 11, the LME copper price was 9,600 USD/ton, down 3.34% from the previous week [44]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing price support. The report anticipates price fluctuations due to weak downstream demand during the off-season [3][46]. - On July 11, the LME aluminum price was 2,600 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [47]. Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - On July 11, the COMEX gold price was 3,370.30 USD/ounce, showing a 1.03% increase from the previous week [49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with domestic policies promoting supply optimization. The demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors provides new momentum for the industry [4][63]. - On July 11, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium was 456,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [63].