Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-30 06:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 20% within the next six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from investment operations, particularly self-operated business, which saw a revenue increase of 134.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The overall resilience of the company's performance is highlighted, despite challenges in brokerage and investment banking due to regulatory tightening [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved adjusted revenues of 146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 62 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenues were 419 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 168 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase [1]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated business generated revenues of 99 billion yuan in Q3 and 216.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking increases of 134.2% and 37.3% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The scale of self-operated financial assets reached 894.1 billion yuan, a 24.9% increase from the previous year, with an investment return rate of 2.42%, up 0.22 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Brokerage and Asset Management - Brokerage revenues for the first three quarters were 71.5 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year, attributed to a lack of market activity, with average daily trading volumes decreasing by 12.3% and 8.6% year-on-year for Q3 and the first three quarters, respectively [2]. - Asset management revenues were 74.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in non-monetary public fund management scale, which expanded by 47.9% [3]. Investment Banking and Credit Business - Investment banking revenues fell to 28.2 billion yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year, primarily due to stricter regulatory policies affecting IPO and refinancing activities, which saw declines of 84.6% and 78.7%, respectively [4]. - Credit business revenues dropped to 9.2 billion yuan, down 72.0% year-on-year, influenced by regulatory changes that paused the securities lending business, leading to a 9.5% decrease in financing and margin trading balances [4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that if daily trading volumes stabilize at 1.5 trillion yuan, it could positively impact brokerage business fundamentals [5]. - The introduction of "swap convenience" by the central bank is expected to enhance the company's leverage capacity, potentially increasing net profit and return on equity (ROE) [5].