技术分析上证指数简评：上证指数短线或有震荡整理需求

Investment Highlights - The core viewpoint indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index may experience short-term consolidation demands, having recently surged significantly over ten trading days, accumulating short-term profit positions. The index faced resistance near the 3731-point level, which is a significant long-term pressure point formed over nine years, leading to a rapid pullback due to profit-taking and long-term trapped positions [2][4][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index exhibited a rare short squeeze, rising over 780 points, or more than 36%, from a low of 2689 points on September 18, 2024, to a recent high of 3674 points on October 8, 2024. This rapid increase recovered approximately 670 trading days of previous losses [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The index encountered strong resistance at the 3731-point level, which has historically been a significant barrier since November 2015. The recent pullback saw the index drop over 15% within eight trading days, finding temporary support at the 3087-3152 point gap. However, the rebound has not stabilized, indicating ongoing volatility and uncertainty in market consensus [4][5][6]. Volume and Momentum Indicators - Recent trading sessions showed a significant increase in selling pressure, with large orders exceeding 340 billion yuan on October 29, 2024. The daily MACD indicator also showed a bearish crossover, suggesting weakening short-term technical conditions. The index's recent small upward movements may face risks of ending, potentially leading to further downward adjustments [5][6]. Support Levels - The index's medium-term moving averages have turned bullish, indicating a positive trend despite short-term risks. Key support levels include the 3087-3152 point gap and the 3000-point mark, which coincide with long-term moving averages. If the index approaches these support levels, it is crucial to monitor volume and price indicators for potential buying opportunities [6].