Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-30 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue of 702.4 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.9 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year. Despite a decline in oil prices, the net profit increased by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company demonstrated strong resilience against oil price fluctuations due to its integrated industrial chain [1]. - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the price discount for crude oil, with the realized price only 3 USD/barrel below Brent, compared to 8.3 USD/barrel in the same period last year [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 crude oil production increased by 0.8% year-on-year, while natural gas production rose by 7.1% year-on-year [1]. - The refining segment faced profit pressure due to weak terminal demand, leading to a 7% year-on-year decrease in crude processing volume and an 11% year-on-year decrease in refined oil output [2]. - The chemical segment saw a profit increase, with ethylene production up 15% year-on-year, contributing to a slight profit increase in the chemical business [2]. - Natural gas sales showed strong profitability, with operating profit of 8.5 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year, driven by a 9.2% increase in unit realization price [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is set at 170.3 billion yuan, 179.3 billion yuan, and 190.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8, 8.4, and 7.9 for A-shares, and 5.2, 4.9, and 4.7 for H-shares [4][6]. - The report indicates a dividend yield of 5.7% for A-shares and 9.6% for H-shares in 2024 [4].