驰宏锌锗：主力矿山恢复正常生产，三季度业绩环比改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][2][13] Core Views - The main viewpoint is that the company's main mines have resumed normal production, leading to improved performance in Q3 compared to previous quarters. The company is expected to benefit from high prices of germanium and a favorable market environment for lead and zinc [2][3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year. However, Q3 showed a net profit of 570 million yuan, which is a 1.3% increase year-on-year and a 37.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][6][12]. - The company forecasts revenues of 23.15 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 2.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60% [12][14]. Production and Sales - In Q3, the lead production from mines was 22,600 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons quarter-on-quarter, while zinc production was 58,700 tons, up 12,700 tons quarter-on-quarter. This increase is attributed to the completion of intelligent upgrades at the main mine [2][6][12]. - The company is the largest germanium producer globally, with an annual capacity of 60 tons, which accounts for 25% of global production and 33% of domestic production. The price of germanium has surged to 18,750 yuan per kilogram by the end of October [3][7][12]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.45 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.54 yuan, respectively. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 12.6, 11.0, and 10.6 for the same years [12][14][13]. - The EBIT margin is projected to improve from 9.3% in 2023 to 12.4% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1][12]. Market Conditions - The report anticipates that the average market prices for zinc and lead will remain favorable, with projected prices of 23,000 yuan per ton for zinc and 17,000 yuan per ton for lead over the next few years [12][14].