Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The polyurethane industry is expected to see marginal improvement in demand due to policy stimulus, with a focus on leading companies like Wanhua Chemical [3][4] - The MDI and TDI price spreads have improved in October, indicating a positive trend in pricing dynamics [2][3] Summary by Sections Price Spread - As of October 30, the price of polymer MDI is 18,300 CNY/ton, down 1.1% month-on-month, while the price spread with benzene is 11,647.25 CNY/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month. The price of pure MDI is 18,000 CNY/ton, up 2.3% month-on-month, with a price spread of 11,347.25 CNY/ton, up 8.9% month-on-month. TDI is priced at 12,850 CNY/ton, up 1.2% month-on-month [2][8] Supply - The operating rate for polymer MDI is 80% with a stock of 76,000 tons, while TDI's operating rate is 82.64% with a stock of 8,000 tons. In September, the export volume for polymer MDI was 94,880 tons, up 8.7% month-on-month, while pure MDI exports were 7,990 tons, down 21.4% month-on-month. TDI exports were 37,300 tons, up 0.8% month-on-month [3][13] Downstream Demand - The production and export of refrigerators and freezers are maintaining high growth. In September, refrigerator production reached 9.629 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year, and exports were 6.68 million units, up 9.7% year-on-year. Freezer production was 2.423 million units, up 11.0% year-on-year, with exports of 634,900 units, up 8.1% year-on-year. However, the real estate sector remains unstable, with cumulative construction area down 12.2% year-on-year [3][19][21]
基础化工：旺季MDI与TDI价差环比扩大，冰箱冰柜需求向好
Huafu Securities·2024-10-30 08:14