AMEC(SH:688012) Haitong Securities·2024-10-30 08:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its high-end etching equipment shipments, with a notable increase in new orders for LPCVD equipment amounting to 300 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [5][10] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.059 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.96% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.77% [5] - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in shipment volumes in 2024, with a projected year-on-year growth of over 200% [7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 396 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 152.63% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.11% [5] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.507 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.27% [5] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 43.73%, an increase of 5.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] Orders and Production - The company received new orders totaling 7.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52% [10] - The etching equipment segment alone accounted for 6.25 billion yuan of new orders, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.7% [10] - The company produced 1,160 specialized equipment units in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 310% [7] Research and Development - R&D expenditure for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.99%, representing about 28.03% of the company's revenue [6] - The company has successfully launched new products, including the LPCVD equipment, which generated 28 million yuan in revenue [6][10] Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are 8.673 billion yuan, 12.280 billion yuan, and 15.322 billion yuan for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.47%, 41.58%, and 24.78% [9][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.834 billion yuan, 2.580 billion yuan, and 3.226 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 2.71%, 40.64%, and 25.05% respectively [9][10] Valuation - The company is assigned a PE valuation of 50x-55x for 2025E, corresponding to a market value range of 129.101 billion yuan to 142.011 billion yuan, and a reasonable share price range of 207.49 yuan to 228.24 yuan [7][14]