Flat(601865) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 09:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a shift from profit to loss in Q3 due to industry supply-demand imbalance, with Q3 net profit at -203 million yuan, a year-over-year decline of 123% [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company is expected to leverage its competitive advantages to maintain its leading position in the long term [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, down 8.1% year-over-year, and a net profit of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% year-over-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 3.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.0% year-over-year and 21.4% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of -203 million yuan [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 6.0%, down 20.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] Earnings Forecast - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised to 1.007 billion yuan, 937 million yuan, and 2.216 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 3.104 billion yuan, 3.479 billion yuan, and 4.690 billion yuan [2] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.43 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.95 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 62.1, 66.8, and 28.2 [2] Industry Outlook - The industry is currently facing high inventory pressure, leading to a significant decline in photovoltaic glass prices, resulting in widespread losses across the sector [2] - There is an expectation for a recovery in component production and inventory reduction, which may lead to price stabilization in the near term [2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity in markets like Vietnam and Indonesia to enhance profitability [2]