NJTC(601975) Guolian Securities·2024-10-30 09:48Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][11]. Core Views - The company aims to become a "global leader in small to medium-sized liquid cargo transportation services" and has shown stable operations after overcoming past challenges [3][16]. - The domestic oil and chemical gas business provides a profit cushion, while the foreign trade refined oil business offers profit elasticity, supported by the largest MR fleet in the Far East [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established over 30 years ago, the company has undergone significant transformations, including asset restructuring and a return to profitability, now focusing on stable operations [3][16]. - The company is controlled by China Changjiang Shipping Group and China Merchants Group, with a strong market position in domestic and foreign oil transportation [3][18]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics in Refined Oil Transportation - The refined oil tanker market is expected to benefit from a tight supply-demand balance, leading to increased earnings [7][29]. - Factors such as geopolitical tensions and the shift of global refining capacity are expected to sustain demand for refined oil transportation [12][36]. 3. Domestic Oil and Chemical Gas Business - The company ranks second in domestic crude oil shipping, with stable freight rates providing a solid foundation for overall profitability [9][18]. - The chemical transportation segment is robust, with the company holding a leading position in the domestic market and unique capabilities in ethylene transportation [9][19]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are estimated at 70.6 billion, 74.4 billion, and 76.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 20.9 billion, 21.2 billion, and 21.8 billion yuan [11][12]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% for revenue and 11.9% for net profit over the next three years [11][12]. 5. Investment Highlights - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upturn in the refined oil transportation market, with significant profit potential from its MR fleet [12][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the refined oil transportation segment as a key driver of future growth [12][29].